Just yesterday Al Gore and the Pachauri-headed IPCC were awarded the Nobel Peace Prize for bringing the connection between greenhouse gas emission and global warming to the attention of the world. It is fashionable for Indians to bash the West for exceeding the per capita sustainable limit of GHG emissions. This limit is stated to be 2,000 kgs/yr/per person by some, and as high as 3,000 kgs/yr/pp by others. The Indian per capita per year value according to www.atmosfair.de is 900 kgs/yr/pp, which looks good.
However, this low number is merely due to the fact that the upper classes (middle and wealthy) consist of 20% of India’s population of 1 billion. The more useful question to ask is what are the numbers for the wealthy?
Now I would classify myself as upper-middle class, but still wary of excess expenditure on anything. Not typical, but still what are the numbers in my family?
a) electricity: typically we use 7,000 kWhrs per year. Assuming 0.7 kgs/kWhr of CO2 production, this means 4900 kgs. This number of 0.7 is a guess-estimate based on the fact that about 2/3 of India’s electricity is thermal (1.0 kgs/kWhr) and the rest is hydroelectric, solar, nuclear etc (0.1 kgs/kWhr).
b) Cooking by LPG: we use typically 1 cylinder per month: weight 14.5 kgs, density of between 0.525 and 0.58 gms/cc. Taking the lower value, this translates 174 kgs LPG per year to 381 Litres/yr and thus 508 kgs CO2 per year (assuming 1.54 kgs CO2/litre).
c) Car: assuming a typical value of 10,000 kms per year and 12 kms/litre mileage, this implies 833 litres/yr of petrol (gasoline), which becomes 1958 kgs CO2/yr (assuming 2.35 kgs CO2/litre).
d) Bus: there are two of us at home who use buses, a typical total of 20,000 kms per year. Assuming a bus emits 0.066 kgs/km/pp (per passenger), this comes to 1320 kgs of CO2.
Up till this point, the total is: 4900 + 510 + 1960 + 1320 kgs i.e. 8690 kgs. Assuming a family of 5 persons, the per capita average emission is a reasonable 1740 kgs – although still a healthy double of the “Indian average”.
Unfortunately, there is air travel to add to the list. One air trip to Bangalore, which is 2,000 kms away from Delhi, so a one-way trip is equal to 500 kgs of CO2 if we assume 0.25 kgs CO2 per passenger-km. Not too bad, just adds 1,000 kgs and an average of 200 kgs to the total per capita, bringing it to 1940 kgs – if only one person makes the trip! If three people go, that adds 600 kgs, to a total of 2340 kgs.
That’s not so bad: we are still sustainable. But what about a trip to New York and back? Distance: 15,200 kms one-way, 30,400 with return. This adds up to: 7,600 kgs CO2 per person (this is 8,100 kgs per person with a return trip according to www.atmosfair.de mentioned above). Now if three of us make this trip (and this does happen), that’s 22,800 kgs!
If we add this to the previous a)-d) total of 8,690 kms, the total becomes: 31,490 kgs, and dividing by 5 still gives a total of 6,300 kgs/pp/yr. Way above sustainable.
And we still have to add a typical amount of ~500 kgs/pp/yr that is the average in the US corresponding to CO2 emissions due to waste. Let us assume that we consume half of the US average, that adds another 250 kgs/pp/yr with a total of 6,550 kgs/pp/yr.
The current world average is 5,500 kgs CO2/pp/yr, whereas the US average is about 22,000 kgs/pp/yr.
Sure, we need to a) use better energy-saving devices b) recycle c) use buses or the metro rather than cars. Let’s assume we save 10%.
The killer is air travel, especially long-distance air travel. Suppose we take the train to Bangalore, it takes 36 hours instead of 2 hrs, but the emission is 90 kgs (assuming 0.05 kgs/pp/km) instead of 1,000 kgs of CO2 – a 90% reduction!
Suppose you travelled 5,530 kms to New York by ship from London (one- way): it takes 6 days instead of 12 hours, and it probably costs more by ship than by air. By air, you emit 1,385 kgs (@0.25 kgs/pp/km); by ship: 277 kgs (@0.05 kgs/pp/km) – a 80% reduction in CO2 emissions.
The problem is: who is going to wait that long? Even if we assume that airlines introduce more efficiency at airports, have more fuel-efficient aircraft and straighten out air travel routes, we are unlikely to see more than 25% reductions in CO2 emissions. Travelling long distances looks to be either too time-consuming or simply environmentally unsustainable.
Carbon offsetting sounds good: according to atmosfair offsetting a trip to New York and back is going to cost me 163 Euros…
However, I believe that prevention is better than cure…
Somebody, anybody: bring back the zeppelins!
Other links that I have consulted:
Green_estimates.doc
http://www.greenhouse.gov.au/gwci/calculator.html
GHG calculator in Excel:
http://www.epa.gov/climatechange/emissions/ind_calculator.html
http://www.co2science.org/scripts/CO2ScienceB2C/about/ghgreport/calculators.jsp
http://www.americanforests.org/resources/ccc/index.php
http://www.usctcgateway.net/tool/
http://safeclimate.net/calculator/
http://www.epa.gov/climatechange/emissions/ind_calculator.html
http://yosemite.epa.gov/oar/globalwarming.nsf/content/ResourceCenterToolsCalculatorAssumptions.html
http://www3.iclei.org/co2/co2calc.htm
http://www.ase.org/section/homeenergycheckup/
http://www.nef.org.uk/energyadvice/co2calculator.htm
http://www.geic.or.jp/choco2b.html
