Friday, June 14, 2019

The Great Pyramid of Giza and assorted towers


The Great Pyramid of Giza and assorted towers


In Lewis Dartnell’s book,”Origins” [1], he describes the Great Pyramid of Giza, built during the reign of the pharaoh Khufu (Cheops),  which was completed around 2,560 B.C.  -  remained the tallest man-made structure until the completion of the Cologne Cathedral in 1880. He adds that it was made of 2.5 million limestone blocks – each weighing 2.5 tonnes on average – arranged in 210 layers. (For residents of Delhi: the Qutab Minar is 73 metres high).

This set me off: can I figure out the total number of blocks? And the height of the pyramid? It turns out (naturally) that the heights of pyramids, towers (including the Tower of Babel) and mountains, have been studied, at length, already.

The Figure above shows a possible arrangement of blocks in a stepped pyramid with a square base: the central block (labelled ‘1’) is at the top of the pyramid, on top of the 3x3 layer (left) just below it (labelled ‘2’, right), which, in turn, rests on the 5x5 layer (that should be labelled ‘3’). Each block rests directly on one block below it (i.e. looking down from the top, there are no overlaps).

I can estimate the number of blocks (assuming the arrangement in the diagram above) from the sum of the series: 1 + 9 + 25 + … with 210 terms. The formula for the sum of the squares of the odd-number series is [2]:
S = n(2n +1)(2n-1)/3
However, this number comes out as 12.34 million – way too many! What happened?





Well, I was assuming a straightforward square pyramid with one block on top of another, not overlapping, which would give a pyramid angle of 45°. The actual angle is about 51°52’ [4,5, see figure above]. So if we reduce the number calculated by the ratio of [cos(51.5)/cos(45)]2 = 0.7626. This gives a better number: (0.7626)(12.34) = 9.41 million – but it is still off by a factor of about 4 - clearly not right. What is clear is that there is ‘overlap’ (if you take a top view), and, from the figure below, it is more than that assumed by just changing the pyramid angle. (Note: the topmost block of figure below on the extreme right should be placed at the centre, symmetrically, as should the central 2x2 set of blocks be properly centred [6]).

 

Consider the sum of squares of natural numbers: 1 + 4 + 9 +…+ n2 – as indicated in the figure above [6]:
This adds up to: Sn = n(n+1)(2n+1)/6
For n = 210, this works out as: S210 = (210)(211)(421)/3 = 3.109 x 106
The angle of this pyramid is also 45°, except right at the apex where it is 63.5° (i.e. tan-1(2)).
Taking the angle factor into account, this goes down to: (0.7634)(3.109 x106) = 2.373 x106.
This is fairly close to the standard estimate of 2.5 million limestone blocks. But:
Sn – Sn-1 = n2
So the number of blocks in the lowest level is 210x210.
The weight of the pyramid is estimated to be 5.75 million tons [5].
A further reality check: the density of medium-density limestone is in the range 2160-2560 kg/m3 [7]. Take the average as 2360 and the weight of each block as 2,500 kgs. The volume of the pyramid becomes: (2500)(2.5x106)/2360 = 2.648 x106 m3.
The volume of a pyramid is given by: V = Ah/3, where h is the height and A is the base area. The height given is h = 147 metres, and the base is b = 230 metres [5], related by the factor tan(51.843°) = h/(b/2). This gives: V = 2.5x106 m3 which agrees with the previous estimate. According to Wikipedia [8], the base is 230.34 metres, the original height was 146.7 metres (currently 138.8 metres), and the volume is 2.583283x106 m3. Because of the height reduction there are only 201 layers now [9], with a pyramid angle of 51.843°.
Note: there are various chambers inside the pyramid, but the total volume of these (~4,000 m3) is small compared to the total [8].
The height of each block is about 147/210 = 0.7 metres. The area of the block should be:
2500/[(0.7)(2360)] =  1.51  m2
So the side of the block is about 1.23 metres. This should give a base value of b = 258 m – which is about 12% more than the actual value which should be 1.097 metres (i.e. 230.34/210). This discrepancy is probably the same as the pyramid angle factor noted above [cos(45°)/cos(51.843°) -1] = 0.144.
An absolutely fascinating analysis by Gary Meisner [10] relates the pyramid angle mentioned above to the square root of the golden number, f (@ 1.618) and p. That is, f1/2 = 1.272, and tan-1(1.272) = 51.83°. Meisner argues that the Egyptians did not know about decimals but they could have approximated p @22/7 and f @ 196/121 (or f1/2 =14/11). He also mentions other properties of the pyramid.
Rhett Allain asks a different question [11]: how high could we make a pyramid or ‘does its slope matter?’ He attempts to find the limiting height by using the compressive strength of limestone (40 MPa) and the weight of the pyramid, and derives some results, but is rather unhappy because the limiting height is much larger than that observed. He estimates h as:
H = s/(rg)
Where s is the compressive strength of limestone (40 MPa), r is the density (2,500 kg/m3) and g = 9.8 m/s2. This gives a number of 3,200 metres!
Allain [11] also plots data for the height h vs the base b for many (~20) pyramids and a rough inspection suggests a roughly (empirical) linear relation: h @ 0.6b.
Allain [11] also calculates the pressure exerted at each cross-section of the pyramid as a function of height, in order to calculate the maximum height of the pyramid – but, apart from the fun in the exercise, he need not have bothered. As far as the maximum height is concerned, a pyramid (consisting of its central blocks only) is the same as a tower; the advantage a pyramid has is not its height (which is limited by s, as for the case of the tower), but its superior stability.
The Tower of Babel was presumably built later than the Great Pyramid, and is also supposed to have been a ziggurat (square-based pyramid), but there are various reported figures of its height, some quite incredible [12]:
a    a)      2,484 metres (The Book of Jubilees)
b    b)         211 m (The Third Apocalypse of Baruch)
c    c)           91 m (Gregory of Tours)
     d)  13,000 m (John Mandeville)
     e)    7,600 m (Verstegan)
 But, assuming it was made of brick, its maximum height was calculated by Prof.J.E.Gordon [13] as:
H = 40x106/(2000x9.8) = 2,040 metres
Dartnell [1b] points out that skyscrapers in New York went so high because they are built on hard metamorphic rocks (schist) that serve as a perfect foundation, and areas that do not have schist have smaller buildings. This requirement of a strong foundation may answer Allain’s question [11]: why are the pyramids so small compared to his theoretical estimate? Allain [11] suggests that finances and resources may be the actual constraints – but it may be down to sandy foundations…
This is somewhat similar to the question answered by Weisskopf [14] many years ago: how high can a mountain be? But he takes into account the energy of liquefaction EL  (0.136 eV) of the material under the mountain (metals/minerals) to calculate its maximum height:
h = EL/(mpAMSg)
where mp is the mass of a proton, AMS is the mass number of SiO2 (silica):
Numerically, this becomes:
h = [(0.136)(1.6x10-19)]/[(1.67x10-27)(60)(9.8)] = 21.6 kms
The height would be reduced if one assumed that the material under the mountain does not get turn liquid under the weight of the mountain, but merely undergoes plastic flow (at lower stress values than for liquefaction).
A more recent estimate [15] – using the same formula as Allain [11] -  yields 10 kms, but a lot depends on the parameters assumed… The question is: could one, in principle (never mind the logistics or the finances!), build a pyramid-shaped mountain 10 kms high?
Auerbach and Wan [16] have communicated an analysis of how the number of skyscrapers (defined by them as buildings taller than 150 metres) has increased at a rate of 8% per year since 1950, to the current number of 3,251 in 258 cities all over the world. They estimate there will be 41,000 skyscrapers by the year 2050, with a 9% chance of the world’s tallest building being 1 mile high. This statistical analysis assumes that current trends continue. But we probably will not be building any mountains any time in the near future!

I remember reading about a proposal to build a tower at the South Pole that would be tall enough that it would intercept sunlight the whole year around, providing solar power even in winter. This would need be about 570 kms high (to take care of the 23.45° tilt of the Earth’s axis) [17].
cos(23.45) = R/(R+h)

where R is the radius of the Earth.
Anyway, it is way above Weisskopf’s limit [14] !

1   1.       “Origins: How the Earth made us” Lewis Dartnell (The Bodley Head, 2018) a) p.127 b) p.154
    13.   J.E.Gordon, “ Structures, or why things don’t fall down” (Pelican, 1978)
1  14.   Victor Weisskopf.”Of Atoms, Mountains and Stars: a Study in Qualitative Physics” Science 187 (1975) 605-12, and: http://www.hk-phy.org/articles/mount_high/mount_high_e.html

1  16. J.Auerbach and P.Wan,”Forecasting the urban skyline with extreme value theory” arXiv 29Oct2018 1808.01514v2
1  17.   http://theworld.com/~reinhold/lunarpolar.html: Arnold G.Reinhold,”A solar powered station at a lunar pole”.



Tuesday, June 4, 2019

A Numerical Error in Hawking’s book, ”Brief answers to big questions”



A Numerical Error in Hawking’s book, ”Brief answers to big questions”

Last time I had an erratum of mine to share. This time: it’s somebody else’s!
On p.115 of Stephen Hawking’s book, “Brief answers to big questions” [1], it is written:

“The speed at which we can send a rocket is governed by two things, the speed of the exhaust and the fraction of its mass that the rocket loses as it accelerates. The exhaust speed of chemical rockets, like the ones we have used so far, is about three kilometres per second. By jettisoning 30 per cent of their mass, they can achieve a speed of about half a kilometre per second and then slow down again.” (emphasis mine).

This looks just like momentum conservation, so I tried to get the answer: ‘about ½ km/sec’. The only hassle is that the mass keeps changing as the fuel is expended and exhausted. So I wrote a simple BASIC program, but I got a different number: 1.07 km/sec. Then I realized you can get the same result by integration:
Vexh dm = m dV
Rearranging:
dV = - Vexh dm/m
Integration of the equation from V = Vi (initial velocity) & mass M = Mi at t = ti to V = Vf  & M = Mf at t = tf yields:
DV = - Vexh ln (Mi/Mf), where DV = Vf – Vi.
Assuming 30% of the fuel is used, as mentioned, and Vexh = 3 km/s, we get:
DV = - 3 ln(1/0.7) @ 1.07 km/s.

After I did all this I belatedly remembered that there was something called a rocket equation that was derived by Konstantin Tsiolkovsky in 1903 [2].

At this point I decided to write to the publisher of the book but I got no reply, mainly because I was not sure if it was published by Hodder & Stoughton, Hachette or whoever. I even mailed some website claiming to be  'connected with Lucy Hawking'. Finally I got a reply from an editor at John Murray, (to the mail to Hachette!), who thanked me for contacting them and said they would have to send it to an expert. After a reminder, about 45 days, the editor wrote that the expert felt that the writing ‘could be clearer’ and that they might just delete the passage since they were aiming at a non-specialist audience. (This sounds plausible, since the book was published in the memory of Stephen Hawking, who died in March 2018).
I wrote that they should just correct the error, and add a footnote crediting the rocket equation to Tsiolkovsky [2]. No reply, to date.
I then sent the question to the author F.Todd Baker [3] (at his website Ask the Physicist) - who agreed with the number that I had calculated. He also speculated as to why the discrepancy occurred:
 “I do not know how Hawking came up with his answer, but it might hinge on what he means by "30% of its fuel"; you and I have interpreted that to mean the exhausted fuel has a mass equal to 30% of the mass of the rocket before the fuel was burned, hence M/(M+m)=0.7.
Also, maybe he was thinking about a launch from earth which would require some of the energy from the rocket to overcome the gravitational force and the energy loss from air drag.
Or maybe he was guesstimating the effects of efficiency of the engines.”

My explanation is simpler: whoever did the calculation, used the rocket equation, but calculated log10 instead of ln. The factor of 2.303 accounts for the discrepancy, resulting in a number of 0.46 km/sec – which was then approximated as ‘about ½ km/sec’.

However, Baker made another point: that the above equation neglects the mass of the rocket itself (and the mass of the payload). So what are the numbers for the ‘dry mass’?
“For a typical rocket, the total mass of the vehicle might be distributed in the following way: Of the total mass, 90% is the propellants; 6% is the structure (tanks, engines, fins, etc.); and 4% can be the payload ” [4].
According to NASA [5], the percentage varies, depending upon the propellant used, but it varies between roughly 85-95% :

Propellant
Rocket Percent Propellant for Earth Orbit

Solid Rocket
96

Kerosene-Oxygen
94

Hypergols
93

Methane-Oxygen
90

Hydrogen-Oxygen
83


I found an easy way out: an online calculator from Wolfram [6]. (Probably Hawking’s assistant should have used it too!). The calculator requires that you input both the initial and final mass, but the DV calculated depends only on their ratio (as above). But I checked it independently as well, accounting separately for the rocket mass and the fuel in the equation for initial and final masses.
The results are tabulated below for ratios of (rocket mass)/(initial mass) varying from 0 to 15%. For the case of 30% fuel used, and zero rocket mass, the number 1.07 km/sec is obtained from the online calculator (see below). As expected, the DV decreases as the percentage of rocket mass increases – but not drastically. This takes care of F.Todd Baker’s suggestion (one of them, rather). The other point that he made: there is a difference between 30% of the initially available fuel being consumed vs 30% of the initial mass being burnt as fuel. For the case of low dry mass fractions (<15 a="" air="" application="" are="" as="" but="" can="" checked="" difference="" drag="" efficiency="" engine="" for="" gravitation="" here="" is="" it="" not="" o:p="" occam="" of="" others="" out.="" razor="" results="" rule="" s="" shown="" small.="" the="" them="" there="">

Rocket mass/initial mass
30% of fuel used
40% of fuel used
50% of fuel used
70% of fuel used
80% of fuel used
100% of fuel used
0
1.07
1.532
2.079
3.6119
4.8283


0.05
1.006
1.434
1.933
3.28
4.2813
8.987
0.1
0.9441
1.3388
1.794
2.9827
3.819

6.908
0.15
0.8831
1.246
1.66
2.7116
3.418
5.691

The tabulated data are plotted in a graphical form above. It is interesting that there seems to be greater deviation from linearity for a larger fraction of fuel use.

At the end of the day, the whole calculation is rather trivial – especially if you know that you should use Tsiolkovsky’s rocket equation [2] – and even more so if you use the online calculator [6] from Wolfram. Nevertheless, it is important to get the numbers right.

Addendum:

An interesting application of the rocket equation was done by Hippke [7] in a recent paper. He argues that – assuming intelligent life develops on a super-Earth (up to 10X of Earth’s mass ME), it would need to overcome the planet’s higher gravity and thus higher escape velocity Vesc (which is proportional to M1/2, where M is the mass of the planet). This becomes difficult as he explains:
 “Many rocky exoplanets are heavier and larger than the Earth, and have higher surface gravity.
This makes spaceflight on these worlds very challenging, because the required fuel mass for a given
payload is an exponential function of planetary surface gravity. We find that chemical rockets still
allow for escape velocities on Super-Earths up to 10X ME . More massive rocky worlds, if they exist, would require other means to leave the planet, such as nuclear propulsion.”
The mass ratio of the vehicle becomes:

Mi/Mf = exp(Vesc/Vth)

which translates to a mass ratio of ~26 on Earth, and~2,700 on the super-Earth planet Kepler-20b (9.7X ME). This does not make it impossible – just that a humongous amount of fuel would be needed to reach escape velocity of the super-Earth. Hippke gives some arguments about why super-Earths would be suitable for life (at least they have more surface area than Earth!), but the jury is out on that one.

References:
1  1.    “Brief Answers to Big Questions” Stephen Hawking (John Murray, 2018) p.114
7   7.     Michael Hippke,” Spaceflight from Super-Earths is difficult” arXiv 18th May 2018 arXiv: 1804.04727v2